A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
